Post by snowlover91 on Aug 24, 2017 22:58:03 GMT -5
Models are split on it, and it likely depends on where Harvey goes and how strong as the outflow from Harvey could shear it. My guess would be that it doesn't develop or do much due to outflow shear.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 25, 2017 22:29:00 GMT -5
Latest NAM has a landfall directly over eastern NC.....its the 32k nam as it is the only one that goes out far enough to show landfall it also will show the highest on pressure, it has it at 1001MB, the 3k Nam doesnt go far enough out to show the landfall but it has it down to 990mb well south of NC. Now assuming it tracks similar to the 32k it would suggest a chance at a much stronger system landfalling.....again though this is just the Nam. However all the globals shifted slower and more west with a solid blocking high sliding off NE. This will be something to watch closely because its around 72-80hrs out from right now.
Last Edit: Aug 25, 2017 22:29:33 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by downeastnc on Aug 25, 2017 23:19:10 GMT -5
CMC shifts west again......then hits Hatteras....GFS was west again quite a bit it matches the CMC but still the weakest of the solutions, it has a weak 1008mb low.
12Z
00Z
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Last Edit: Aug 25, 2017 23:23:40 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by downeastnc on Aug 26, 2017 16:37:49 GMT -5
Yeah pretty much all the models now bring it up and over eastern NC or right along the immediate coast.....still cant see this being more than a middle to at best strong TS if it is even completely tropical....
Nice vis loop showing how large the area of rotation is near the surface its gonna be awhile for this thing to do much, that said the longer it stays down there and consolidates the higher the chances of it actually hitting are....if the high can get out off the Canada Maritimes before this thing gets up this way it will forced more north than northeast.
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 26, 2017 20:43:38 GMT -5
Yeah tons of shear over the area, it looks like it will be subtropical if it does indeed form. Could get decent TS conditions along the coast though, Morehead city to Hatterss.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 26, 2017 22:33:39 GMT -5
Shear forecast backing off now though after 48 hrs it really becomes pretty favorable.....there will be a window if there is a closed LLC for it to get organized into a storm I think. the real question IMO is will there be enough of a delay with the broad trough consolidating and will it consolidate far enough south to allow the Canadian high to slip far enough east to close the door forcing the center over eastern NC or the OBX. There is a lot of uncertainty obviously and the water is warm so if the trend is for lower shear in 48 hrs I wouldnt be surprised to see models trend stronger and more tropical......storms like this though almost always end up OTS to just barely brushing the OBX only a few have ever become large/strong storms and actually come inland....
Mon shear
Tues shear
Last Edit: Aug 26, 2017 22:34:11 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by downeastnc on Aug 27, 2017 11:18:30 GMT -5
you can see the shear backing off on the vis loop, looks like some sort of circulation trying to form around 80W 31N with some good thunderstorm development whose tops really are not getting to sheared.....
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 27, 2017 13:38:25 GMT -5
I looked at GFS shear maps which show the shear backing off due to an anticyclone forming over this system. Models agree on this skirting the coast or coming just inland but don’t bring much rain with it either.
Post by downeastnc on Aug 27, 2017 14:55:59 GMT -5
Its a large circulation, thats gonna make it tough to get a tight well defined center in the short term....if however it does manage to get a decently organized center and can get a strong Dmax that might be the difference from a small strung out weakish system vs a larger stronger system...really its pretty darn big its probably a good thing conditions are not to favorable....