OK it isn't even noon and I'm sitting in 4000 surface-based CAPE. And there's nearly 2" of precipitable water in the column. Is anyone gonna get lucky today?
OK it isn't even noon and I'm sitting in 4000 surface-based CAPE. And there's nearly 2" of precipitable water in the column. Is anyone gonna get lucky today?
Probably not. The models all show it remaining dry today and tomorrow with an isolated storm or two... unless they’re horribly wrong which is a fairly common occurrence on these hot summer days.
Post by snowlover91 on Jul 12, 2017 14:59:53 GMT -5
It’s pretty incredible that with 4-4.5k CAPE, a PW value of 1.9-2 and RH in the parcel level at 80% that we can only get a few storms popping, and the few we have are struggling.
Post by downeastnc on Jul 13, 2017 23:37:28 GMT -5
Saturday will be wet, as the front washes out over NC, weak shear should limit severe but it will also mean storms wont move fast so some frog stranglers are on tap for those lucky enough to get in on the storms.
Saturday will be wet, as the front washes out over NC, weak shear should limit severe but it will also mean storms wont move fast so some frog stranglers are on tap for those lucky enough to get in on the storms.
Looks like the front will stay stalled right over the area well into next week so should see decent 30-40% storm chances each afternoon.
Man, Zebulon vicinity getting slammed with repeat cells -- 1" to 2" so far in just the last hour or two. Nice for them.
Still dry, hot & miserable at Bozart Farm, even though a little cell is teasing me, just 4 miles to my west. Pretty sure it'll fall apart before it can get here.
Still dry, hot & miserable at Bozart Farm, even though a little cell is teasing me, just 4 miles to my west. Pretty sure it'll fall apart before it can get here.
Yep, it disappeared -- 1.5 miles west of me. HAAA HA HA HA
Well, hallelujah! .36" in the old Bozart Farm gauge! That little storm had some sharp lightning, too.
Here's hoping it's just an opening salvo to a stormy weekend.
Lucky! My house has been missed all week it seems like. I have a feeling the storms tomorrow will somehow end up just to our south. Models are hinting at that happening... and well, you know how it goes. We even had 5k cape today... but nothing to sustain the storms.