Have at it. First half of June looks at or below normal. A nice start with a trough in the area bringing cooler weather.
Interesting that we already have tropical prospects. When I was young, seems to me July was considered early for Atlantic basin action. I don't command the stats in my head like some of you guys do. So, am I right? Are home-brew tropical lows cranking up earlier in the season than they used to?
Have at it. First half of June looks at or below normal. A nice start with a trough in the area bringing cooler weather.
Interesting that we already have tropical prospects. When I was young, seems to me July was considered early for Atlantic basin action. I don't command the stats in my head like some of you guys do. So, am I right? Are home-brew tropical lows cranking up earlier in the season than they used to?
Heres some interesting info I pulled from Weather Underground on it. The top major hurricanes for May, June and July in the Atlantic and then early season January-May tropical systems.
Major May-June-July Hurricanes
All Early Season Major Hurricanes, Ranked by Wind Speeds
Rank Name Date Winds (mph) Location 1. Emily July 17, 2005 160 South of Jamaica 2. Dennis July 10, 2005 145 Gulf of Mexico 3. Audrey June 27, 1957 145 Gulf of Mexico 4. Unnnamed Hurricane July 26, 1926 140 Bahamas 5. Alma June 8, 1966 125 Florida Keys 6. Bertha July 8, 2008 120 Southeast of Bermuda 7. Unnamed Hurricane July 5, 1916 120 Gulf of Mexico 8. Unnamed Hurricane July 14, 1916 115 South Carolina 9. Unnamed Hurricane June 23, 1945 115 Gulf of Mexico 10. Hurricane Able May 21, 1951 115 North Carolina 11. Anna July 21, 1961 115 Southern Caribbean 12. Bertha July 9, 1996 115 North of the Domincan Republic
All Early Season (January - May) Named Storms
May 31, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur May 6, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea April 18, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana April 21, 1992: Subtropical Storm 1 May 6, 1981: Tropical Storm Arlene January 18, 1978: Subtropical Storm 1 May 21, 1976: Subtropical Storm 1 May 23, 1972: Subtropical Storm Alpha May 17, 1970: Hurricane Alma (Category 1) May 28, 1959: Tropical Storm Arlene February 2, 1953: Tropical Storm Alice May 25, 1952: Tropical Storm 1 May 15, 1951: Hurricane Able (Category 3) May 22, 1948: Tropical Storm 1 May 19, 1940: Tropical Storm 1 May 27, 1934: Tropical Storm 1 May 14, 1933: Tropical Storm 1 May 5, 1932: Tropical Storm 1 May 13, 1916: Tropical Storm 1 May 24, 1908: Hurricane 2 (Category 1) March 6, 1908: Hurricane 1 (Category 2) May 27, 1890: Tropical Storm 1 May 16, 1889: Hurricane 1 (Category 1) May 17, 1887: Tropical Storm 2 May 15, 1887: Tropical Storm 1 May 30, 1865: Tropical Storm 1
It would seem from looking at this list and the major early season storms that, in this sample at least, history indicates we actually see less now than we did previously.
Well, I wasn't really thinking major, which is a fairly high bar any time of the season. Just generic tropical action -- cyclones and open disturbances. Also, the samples shown exclude June, which (to me) would be a telling month. I mean, I did begin by remarking that July used to be considered early, but that nowadays days we were looking at prospects this month -- June. Also, the proffered data omits all years since 2008.
One impression the Early Season Named Storms data gave me was that years with early-season action seem to come in streaks. Maybe we're in a streak.
Well, I wasn't really thinking major, which is a fairly high bar any time of the season. Just generic tropical action -- cyclones and open disturbances. Also, the samples shown exclude June, which (to me) would be a telling month. I mean, I did begin by remarking that July used to be considered early, but that nowadays days we were looking at prospects this month -- June. Also, the proffered data omits all years since 2008.
One impression the Early Season Named Storms data gave me was that years with early-season action seem to come in streaks. Maybe we're in a streak.
I'll see what else I can dig up, that was just a quick look at things. It seems at least in the period of of January-May, we have seen less. I'll see if I can find some June and July stats as well for tropical cyclones in general and see.
So far it seems the best resource I can find I have to go to each year and look that way. I'm thinking about starting in 1960 and going to present day and seeing how many June/July storms we've seen.
Last Edit: Jun 4, 2017 0:01:43 GMT -5 by snowlover91
Well one thing to note is that the ability to "see" tropical systems has greatly improved, so I would think a lot of those older tropical classifications are suspect and or would be treated different if they existed in the age of worldwide GOES coverage with Dorvak/windsat scans etc. Add that to the fact here are a lot of tropical hybrid type storms that the new tech allows us to see that would have been missed or classified incorrectly 50 yrs ago since over time what is considered a "tropical" system has evolved as well. It is rare to see a full blown strong deep TC before July, and I think it remains that way, but what may have changed is the ability to see/track the mid lat hybrid type of systems the NHC now classifies and those do tend to form earlier and one would think this will skew the number of April-June numbers up over time. The chances of a Cat 2 or better storm hitting the USA prior to July 4th is pretty darn low.
Its interesting on a tropical note to notice that the rems of the TS in the east Pac that crossed Mex into the southern GOM is what the models have been keying on developing and bringing on or over Florida ( had it into LA last week then up to us) and the typical early season shear should hammer it the entire time but it nice to see the models at least had somewhat of a decent grasp on the overall gist of the setup.
Last Edit: Jun 4, 2017 9:20:41 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Lots of quick hitting heavy showers so far, the hi res models have a more organized line of storms firing around 6-8 tonight NW of here and dropping across eastern NC I would think that will the best chance to see something severe.
Lots of quick hitting heavy showers so far, the hi res models have a more organized line of storms firing around 6-8 tonight NW of here and dropping across eastern NC I would think that will the best chance to see something severe.
Yep, I've got .85" on the day so far and it looks like there's more coming.
Lots of quick hitting heavy showers so far, the hi res models have a more organized line of storms firing around 6-8 tonight NW of here and dropping across eastern NC I would think that will the best chance to see something severe.
Yep, I've got .85" on the day so far and it looks like there's more coming.
you should be getting crushed, also lots of weak rotations in this mess, one actually produced or maybe is even still producing a TOG east of Bethel....