Wow hurricane wind warnings off the coast so this thing is gonna bomb like crazy huh.....GFS has it too 988 well offshore and thats not too low and not close to the insanity of the bomb off ILM earlier this year. NAM gets it to 983 so thats not too shabby...
Last Edit: Mar 2, 2016 17:41:23 GMT -5 by downeastnc
DP in the low 20's, might crack the upper 20's tonight we radiate well on nights like this usually.... if we could stay cloudy all day tomorrow and not get into the 50's then I would be more optimistic to see a few flakes but partly sunny in March means 50's, MHX going with 38 tomorrow night need 34-35 to see the flakes get to the ground.....
00Z NAM step in the wrong direction just based on the snowfall map.....also last run it had the low to 969 this run in the same frame its at 981 so that is significantly weaker but still a strong low.
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 2, 2016 23:06:47 GMT -5
Yeah snow map wasn't quite as good on the NAM. Need a nice trend within 24 hours, tomorrow we will be in range of HRRR and RAP those are the models to watch near term. For now looks like snow confined to Chapel Hill and points west/north of there.
Although it's highly unlikely to verify the 4km NAM, ARW and NMM are all throwing out some decent snow maps. Banding is evident and they all have different solutions for central/eastern NC. Much depends on the final low track, how quickly it strengthens and where the backside band sets up. Some intense 1-2" per hour rates of snow are possible under this IF it is cold enough for snow. We will see.
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 3, 2016 12:03:43 GMT -5
HRRR indicating more heavy rain for I-95 and east as the low wraps up. Possibly 1-2" of rain. Too bad this isn't snow lol. Also here is the snow map from the HRRR.
Post by Fountainguy97 on Mar 3, 2016 16:21:11 GMT -5
SOme places in Georgia reporting 3 inches of snow.... why cant we bust on the + side like that? lol latest HRRR has r/s line 100-150miles north of nc VA border
they had the timing right, cloud cover moved in before sunrise capping the temp rise then heavy precip in cold dry air at the surface.....other than that 4" hit we got winter before this one ( ironically it was the day before the big storm we were suppose to get that busted ) that was suppose to be a dusting to a inch I cant remember the last time we busted big time to the good....
Last Edit: Mar 3, 2016 16:54:27 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by Fountainguy97 on Mar 3, 2016 17:27:19 GMT -5
Very true. Raleigh may see some flakes at onset and at the end if they are lucky. EVERY storm so far this winter I have watched my temp sit at 33-34 and pour rain... No joke haha happened 3 times I believe and still haven't seen ANY accumulating snowfall. got abt .3 of ice but that's no fun