And UK is in the NAM/GFS camp too. The ARPEGE agrees with Euro. My guess is the GFS camp will be right, a March snow is difficult to get especially any accumulation.
One heads-up for newcomers trying to get registered: the interface told me my email address was already registered! Apparently I had registered, years ago, on a different freeforums board. If I had not been able to locate that old password from way back when, I might have been stymied.
One heads-up for newcomers trying to get registered: the interface told me my email address was already registered! Apparently I had registered, years ago, on a different freeforums board. If I had not been able to locate that old password from way back when, I might have been stymied.
Glad you were able to get it figured out Bozart! I will definitely look into that and we will be going live pretty soon once I figure out a few more bugs on here and get them worked out. What do you think of the new forum so far? Do you like the layout and the weather widget at the top of the page?
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 1, 2016 22:07:08 GMT -5
Well the GFS at 18z went south closer to the Euro solution... However even with the Euro being the furthest south of all models it's still too warm for snow at the surface. A solid 36-37 won't cut it for snow. Now if it was 33-35 it would be but nothing indicates that will happen and the NAM, which has done well with surface temps, is in the 38-42 range. Just a cold rain I'm afraid with maybe a few token flakes at the end.
Yeah that's been the story of our winter. The Euro at least did a good job it seems with sticking to the south solution it had for a few days and now all models are jumping to that. Really the only thing that could help us is if the cold air makes it in quicker (that never happens) or the low transfers quicker and further south (unlikely). Even in the best case I don't see much outside the mountains... Just a nice cold rain again. We've seen that way too many times this year and have been SO close to a few good events.
Yep so much for the "we don't need a -NAO" to have snow in the south lol, without the -NAO the storm tracks are not far enough south and we get nothing but cutters, the few times we had a bit of a -NAO we got a few near missed......especially that one super low that bombed that was so close to being a monster....
Yeah the NAO definitely makes a big difference around here.. The previous winters we did okay without one but when you're in a strong El Niño it definitely helps. This El Niño was rather strange though, typically you get a good number of storms that move under the PNA ridge and through the Baja region into Mexico. We saw very few storms do that this winter, in fact I don't remember any that did pretty much all the chances we tracked moved over the top of the PNA ridge instead. When that happens you need perfect timing, phasing and a good block.
The Euro was basically a carbon copy of the previous run. I had to double check the time stamps to make sure it was the updated run lol. Anyways here are 3 panels from the surface maps, notice the 35F line is right around the Triangle. Anywhere along and north of that are the areas that would see some rain/snow mix or all snow further NW. So close.
Well looks like they might actually pull a decent event out of this around Richmond.....at this point I am to far gone to be bummed by another hit for them, so good for them I hope they get a foot....
Post by Fountainguy97 on Mar 2, 2016 11:46:26 GMT -5
Our problem is this storm tries desperately to curve north, west of the apps. It then digs south but the damage is done and the HP has lagged and cold hasn't pulled south. We need a more EURO solution and need a true MIllar A track another 100 miles south..... Wont happen but that's what we need
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 2, 2016 15:38:50 GMT -5
High res 4km NAM, which has done the best with temps and transition zones this winter inside 48 hours, shows some light snow accumulations Friday morning.
Post by snowlover91 on Mar 2, 2016 17:33:20 GMT -5
RGEM shifted the rain/snow line SE a good 25-50 miles now has it in Wake County. We need to see if models continue to trend colder tonight or if the 18z runs were just a blip.
Dont do it Snow....at best we see wet flakes and that would be if the cold caught up to the moisture and that NEVER works out.
Haha well I'm in Raleigh/Knightdale area so I am hoping for a colder trend to continue. I haven't even seen any of the snow this winter thats fallen, what little we've had, because every time a storm came up I was in the wrong place. The last one I was in Jacksonville, NC while Greenville saw a few inches of snow.