Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 20, 2017 8:44:26 GMT -5
The La Nina is starting to peak over the next 3-5 days. THe good news is that it is a Central (maybe leaning east) la nina. Using our research for winters to NOT be warm during a la nina we want the Nino 4 (far west portion of the ENSO region) to be neutral (not have the coldest anomalies). AND the 1.2 area needs to be neutral-or cool.
We had a unique Modoki Nina last year in which the anomalies were solely focused in the 3.4 nina zone. I went through EVERY Modoki nina year and then examined the winters after each Modoki event. It seems that these winters after a Modoki Nina were much closer to normal temps across the US than the traditional Nina which is warm for us.
Me and Tyler are working on a top analog and if we are correct the year 1984-1985 is EXTREMELY close to this year. It featured a cool January and February.
The key is an active MJO cycle and active blocking. The AO is forecast to dip negative and the NAO will hang out in neutral territory in the next week. THat is a good sign for us because blocking will easily overpower any weak nina impacts.
You cant ignore typical Nina climate but at the same time our research points to a fairly "normal" winter temperature wise.
OH and the 1999-2000 winter was a winter after Modoki winter and who doesn't want another January 2000 storm??
Last Edit: Oct 20, 2017 9:07:16 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 20, 2017 9:12:34 GMT -5
Here is January 1985 of our possible top analog.
The evolution of the SST’s are almost identical. The geometrical heights are similar. Even the equatorial wind patterns line up closely. I’ll save you all those pictures haha
The SST’s are a little off off the coast of New England and in the northern pacific but recent cooling in both areas is slowly bringing 2017 into very close similarity to 1984.
For the record there are other analogs that are close to this year and all of them have a January of -2 to +1 but 1984-85 is by far the closest.
Last Edit: Oct 20, 2017 9:24:04 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Post by downeastnc on Oct 20, 2017 18:59:18 GMT -5
Analog forecasting still has a way to go, its fun but most of the time they are not to reliable.....at least no more than the general NWS long range calls you see based on ENSO etc.....1985 sucked and if it wasnt for the coldest night on record happening that Jan it would be a total waste of a winter. Hopefully this winter isnt a repeat of 1985.
Last Edit: Oct 20, 2017 18:59:40 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by Fountainguy97 on Oct 20, 2017 21:21:45 GMT -5
Analogs are particularly important this winter due to the nature of our Niña. The propagation of the La Niña is very unique coming off of the Modoki Nina last year. If we didn’t look at analogs we would say “weak/mod Niña= warm and dry”. But I do not see that being the case this winter as long as blocking comes into play.
All we need is blocking and not even much of it. With the Niña setting up the way it is any neutral to negative nao and ao will easily pull cold air down into our area. All signs pointing toward active blocking patterns into winter. I’ll take that look all day every day.
Last Edit: Oct 20, 2017 21:32:57 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Analog forecasting still has a way to go, its fun but most of the time they are not to reliable.....at least no more than the general NWS long range calls you see based on ENSO etc.....1985 sucked and if it wasnt for the coldest night on record happening that Jan it would be a total waste of a winter. Hopefully this winter isnt a repeat of 1985.
Analogs are actually very accurate when proper methodology is used. They form the basis for what general patterns to expect and what overall temps will look like. 1985 wasn’t a great year with snow at only 2-4” across the state but it was very cold and for our snow events a lot of it comes down to luck and timing. For this winter things look pretty cold from mid-December through part of January, just depending on the Niña evolution.
I predict lots of 40 and rain in Wilmington. ALready looking forward to spring.
My winter bet each year I was in Wilmington was for at least one sleet event. Sleet never surprised me but snow (the few times we got any) did. My several years here in Greenville haven't been all that much different than Wilmington except it's a bit colder up here. In all my 13 North Carolina winters, 3" snowfall remains the most I've seen, and that's for both Wilmington (10 winters) and Greenville (3 winters.) For a lot of snow without going too far north, I'd recommend central Maryland ... you will always get snow in winter there, and biggies aren't all that rare.
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
