18Z gfs alot more east. Probably no impact at all except for rough surf
That's the real problem is that we're not seeing any strikes over North Carolina anymore. I would believe that this was still on the table for us we would at least be getting a random landfall run every once in awhile. Instead all we're getting is some runs within 200 miles but still not close enough to matter
I think this ends the hurricane season for us though its possible an OCT storm can still threaten florida.
With the 5pm NHC track shifting east, the writing is on the wall. That piece of crap Jose ruined what could have been a manageable and fun storm for many. What a waste of what normally would have been a perfect track.
I think this ends the hurricane season for us though its possible an OCT storm can still threaten florida.
With the 5pm NHC track shifting east, the writing is on the wall. That piece of crap Jose ruined what could have but a manageable and fun storm for many. What a waste of what normally would have been a perfect track.
Yea probably a 90-100mph hurricane if it landfalled in se NC. Would not have caused widespread damage.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 20, 2017 20:48:45 GMT -5
Yeah we have to see what models show the next day but it’s looking less likely for a NC landfall now. If 00z runs go east with all the upper air data in them then that would seal it imo.
Yeah we have to see what models show the next day but it’s looking less likely for a NC landfall now. If 00z runs go east with all the upper air data in them then that would seal it imo.
Even then its really up to how Jose plays out.....so upper data now might not be the same as upper air 48 hrs from now if Jose fades away....it all comes down to how strong and west the WAR, if Jose fades or doesn't damage it enough Maria will be more west, will that be enough is certainly a ? even if Jose fades...
Looks like Jose has stalled so step 1 of the models being right is complete. We have invoked the navgem over the euro.....that's always a sign that that we are grasping at straws. In the end I cant see anything that would make me believe she is coming west.
Looks like Jose has stalled so step 1 of the models being right is complete. We have invoked the navgem over the euro.....that's always a sign that that we are grasping at straws. In the end I cant see anything that would make me believe she is coming west.
If she gets west of 72W without turning due north that will be the first clue the models have mad mistakes with the WAR or Jose strength etc....the models all have her moving more or less N by 72/73W, seems extremely unlikely they have it wrong at this point but I remember the Matthew forecasted loop off the SE coast......so its possible that 48 hrs from now the models turn her back NW and bring her in to NC like they had several days ago....unlikely though.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 21, 2017 20:42:40 GMT -5
The NHC cone barely has the Turks and Caicos in the far west edge of the cone in the short term....on her current track she will be right on or just outside that cone in 12 hrs or so....the official plot is probably 50-60 miles NE of the Turks and Caicos.....she needs to turn NNW right now to stay in the cone or at least not be on the extreme right edge of it....if she doesn't that's a pretty big miss for inside 12 hrs....
Post by Fountainguy97 on Sept 22, 2017 12:57:52 GMT -5
Jose is weaker than forecasted. Maria will be a problem for the OBX if not Eastern NC.
500mb of Jose is key. The quicker it opens the quicker the ridge builds and the quicker Maria is pushed NW. If the 500mb opens up literally 6 hours sooner on the GFS then it is a NC landfall