Post by snowlover91 on Sept 23, 2017 20:59:35 GMT -5
For those who hug the Euro, like the NHC, these model stats at 96 and 120 hours for Maria should be all you need to know. GFS has been far superior with Maria in the 72-120 hour range that we are in now. Also, the NNE movement was temporary due to convection wrapping around the eye and it’s already moving NNW again per Goes 16 and microwave data.
Post by lexxnchloe on Sept 24, 2017 6:24:24 GMT -5
0Zgfs had cane conditions over outer banks. 06 GFS further east with tropical storm conditions possible. Hmon about 50 miles east at 06z hwrf also a bit east. Euro a bit west last night while ukmet is east.
06z gfs never had the left hook towards the coast. The 0z ensemble had a few members into the sounds but it's rare for a storm to make an abrupt left turn right before turning the other direction.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 24, 2017 8:30:37 GMT -5
I think the sharp turns are all noise in the models trying to figure out where the center will be and the models are wishy washy on how strong the ridge is and its causing the track to jump a bit....I dont think there will ever be a sharp turn back to the coast....it will be a gradual turn more NW followed by a stall and then ENE motion from the point of the stall....the question has always been how far NW does she get, the later she turns to a more NW heading the further east she will be when she stalls and goes east....thats why the majority of ens members on all the models that are west of 73W at 30N hit NC as it allows Maria to be more west thus she gets more west when she turns....the issue is how strong is the ridge, and on her current heading she looks to cross 73W and be maybe even close to 74W by 30N assuming no change in heading for the next 6-8 hrs.....if that happens she will be on the western edge of all the ensembles which have the ridge stronger, making it at least look like that scenario is verifying....she needs to turn N to NNE right now to stay in the middle of all guidance...
Last Edit: Sept 24, 2017 8:31:25 GMT -5 by downeastnc
The nhc is not budging and is sticking to the east leaning solutions. Experience tells me when they are so dead set on a track in this time frame you can second guess them all day but they are right. Let's hope she doesn't give us a ton of rain or some garbage weather. If it ain't gonna hurricane I want sunny and blue skies.
I think the sharp turns are all noise in the models trying to figure out where the center will be and the models are wishy washy on how strong the ridge is and its causing the track to jump a bit....I dont think there will ever be a sharp turn back to the coast....it will be a gradual turn more NW followed by a stall and then ENE motion from the point of the stall....the question has always been how far NW does she get, the later she turns to a more NW heading the further east she will be when she stalls and goes east....thats why the majority of ens members on all the models that are west of 73W at 30N hit NC as it allows Maria to be more west thus she gets more west when she turns....the issue is how strong is the ridge, and on her current heading she looks to cross 73W and be maybe even close to 74W by 30N assuming no change in heading for the next 6-8 hrs.....if that happens she will be on the western edge of all the ensembles which have the ridge stronger, making it at least look like that scenario is verifying....she needs to turn N to NNE right now to stay in the middle of all guidance...
Yes sir she is past 73!! At this point it is very reasonable to think that Maria will sit in the southern Pamlico sound for a good while. I don’t see any indication of her getting any further West at the moment.
NHC is waiting to pull the trigger. They want to be 99% sure of a landfall before hey start issuing warnings and possible evacs. Trust me they are not stupid. We saw it with Irma. They waited a very long time before putting anyone on landfall notice.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 24, 2017 10:18:10 GMT -5
She needs to go due north from here the rest of the time for them to verify...the farthest west they take the center is 73.5....and thats not until 34 north which is almost even with Lookout.....sop basically they say she isnt going to go anymore west than where she basically is now....and like you said they are probably right....but someone needs to tell Maria she is moving to much west.
She needs to go due north from here the rest of the time for them to verify...the farthest west they take the center is 73.5....and thats not until 34 north which is almost even with Lookout.....sop basically they say she isnt going to go anymore west than where she basically is now....and like you said they are probably right....but someone needs to tell Maria she is moving to much west.
Ridge ridge ridge. As I see it 73-74W is the point of no return. Somewhere in there is an axis. West of it and it’s into the coat. East of it and it’s OTS. If Maria is 73.5 or so this evening watch out because she has her eyes set on the OBX. with her huge size PGV will easily see TS force conditions if Maria ends up in Pamlico.
I'd bet she isn't making landfall over any parts of NC based on what information we have in front of us. The nhc isn't waiting it hasn't made the call because there's no reason for them to. Nothing in the models except a handful of ens members suggest this makes landfall. Could the obx have some rough weather? Of course! Doesnt mean we see squat this far inland.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 24, 2017 11:07:27 GMT -5
Yeah the models are having none of this landfall business....doesnt mean they are right though....she cant come any further west and still verify the NHC or GFS tracks....still if she isnt at 74/75W by say 32/33N then she is not going to make it far enough west to get into the sounds or over the IBX...
Yeah as the models are getting more upper air data from the extra balloon releases it seems as if they are settling now on a due north track with the recurve. Totally fits climatology and everything we know about the setup. Too bad that ULL wasn't enough to capture her.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 24, 2017 12:58:05 GMT -5
Yeah not enough west movement in her to make me think she can get west enough to hit....she needs to move NW and she just isnt doing it....not sure I think anyyonme but the OBX sees any effect from Maria....thought the west trend from a day ago was on to something too but it appears not.