Post by downeastnc on Sept 14, 2017 9:17:22 GMT -5
Only way he gets further west is if he is stronger and deeper than the sheared out mess he is now....we will see what the noon runs look like but Jose is probably not even a slight chance for NC at this point except maybe the OBX......
Post by downeastnc on Sept 14, 2017 16:01:46 GMT -5
There has been a fairly decent west shift today, HWRF jumped well west and brings him close to OBX, Ukie is still right over or just east of the OBX.....if he tracked 50-75 miles west of that track we all get a hurricane landfall around Swansboro over to Beaufort with a due north motion....the NHC has put the OBX in the far west edge of the cone...if he can get more organized and stronger faster he might go further west and models have been undoing the ridges over the ATL so I think if we see any track changes in the models it will be west not east as the ridge gets sampled better....
Last Edit: Sept 14, 2017 16:04:25 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Still a very long shot for anything more than the OBX getting weak sided, though who knows at this point...would like to see a more WNW type motion for another day to really think he has a chance of bring his core inland over eastern NC enough to give us a actual landfall over the mainland....still when they move slow like this they can do all kinds of stuff, he wouldnt be a threat till at least Mon/Tues.
Still a very long shot for anything more than the OBX getting weak sided, though who knows at this point...would like to see a more WNW type motion for another day to really think he has a chance of bring his core inland over eastern NC enough to give us a actual landfall over the mainland....still when they move slow like this they can do all kinds of stuff, he wouldnt be a threat till at least Mon/Tues.
With this going extratropical up the coast and a strong pressure gradient it would have a large wind field like Irma did. There won’t be a “weak” side as the extratropical transition causes this to really spread out. It’ll have low peak winds but a huge wind field imo.