Post by downeastnc on Sept 11, 2017 15:33:00 GMT -5
It will be 3 more days before its inside a reliable window for modeling....GFS trending east again on the 18Z....going to be well east of Hatteras I bet....
Last Edit: Sept 11, 2017 17:11:09 GMT -5 by downeastnc
It went east but with these set-ups its going to fluctuate each run.
It went east every run today.....and all the 18Z ens went way off the coast but with a wacky loop the models probably are not handling it well so we will see.....
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 11, 2017 20:00:58 GMT -5
Don’t expect models to have a good handle on this until after the cyclonic loop completes. They’re notorious for handling them poorly. FWIW, here are the 12z UKMET ensembles....
So unless there is a wholesale change in modeling very soon this thing is gonna be a non threat, the trends are very much east and weaker...
Except the UKMET and NAVGEM both of which have a strong hurricane. The UKMET doubled down and hits Miami now. It may have the right idea because latest visibles are showing this is dropping SOUTHEAST right now whereas the Euro and GFS had this drifting E or ENE. UK is pretty much nailing the current movement and a storm further south will miss the trough that the GFS and Euro use to pull this OTS. If current trends continue expect big changes tonight and tomorrow on other models.