Meh its very very very very very very rare for a storm at that lat to hit the US....it can happen but nothing in the modeling hints at it yet. 99.9% of storms out there end up moving NE before they interact with any landmass other than Bermuda.
It would be rare but its also rare to have 2 cat 5's in the atlantic at the same time. And the track of Irma will be quite rare as well. You would think a cane in Sept going north from cuba and hitting the west coast of FLA would then turn nne and run the coast. a sharp NW turn into TN is highly unusual.
Oh it can happen but if someone handed you a million bucks and said bet it all on miss or hit where would you put your money. Jose will be out there a long time one way or the other though...
Oh it can happen but if someone handed you a million bucks and said bet it all on miss or hit where would you put your money. Jose will be out there a long time one way or the other though...
Obviously i would bet that every cape verde storm that formed would recurve as the huge majority do. But as you say Jose will wandering around for awhile.
Post by snowlover91 on Sept 9, 2017 8:16:04 GMT -5
A few Euro and GFS ensemble members are now bringing Jose into the Bahamas and then up the NC coast after the cyclonic loop. It depends on how the HP builds in as it could force it far enough west into the US. We’ve seen how with Irma the ridging has been a bit stronger than modeled.
I tell u what though...hurricane Dennis sure pulled that off! Lol...now he had a crazy storm track. Grazed the coast sw to ne...stalled east of NC for days...then moved back due west and made landfall. Lame storm..but he defied everything.
I tell u what though...hurricane Dennis sure pulled that off! Lol...now he had a crazy storm track. Grazed the coast sw to ne...stalled east of NC for days...then moved back due west and made landfall. Lame storm..but he defied everything.
Kyle 2002 was a great example of a looping hurricane.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 9, 2017 16:45:14 GMT -5
Jose is different since he comes from so far west.....now that the models ditch the silly double loop solution it seems more likely that Jose could be a threat....