Investigation 99L

This one is struggling to get its act together even with fairly favorable conditions. Looks like the Euro might have the right idea of little to no development. I guess the new gfs upgrade isn’t all that great...

The system still has a window of opportunity. It's stretched out and not consolidated but there's nothing really standing in it's way down the road either. Model support has backed off though.

We've already had 5 named systems and are likely to add another by next week with 90L. That's A lot for early August. It only also takes 1 storm to change the year. A storm comes along with the right pattern and a slow season can become a busy one in a hurry.

when storms get stretched like this they can't seem to get a center started. I've seen many systems like this where a center finally forms and it was a good distance from where models though it would. these type if systems also have centers that tend to reform to new areas a lot early in their formation

GFS is meh, CMC is better but a safe recurve. We'll see what the euro shows this afternoon.

I will keep an eye on it.

Nice flare up this evening with some decent outflow. The shear is still clearly evident though.