May 5 Severe event

Fountainguy97
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May 5 Severe event May 3, 2017 15:46:24 GMT -5

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Post by Fountainguy97 on May 3, 2017 15:46:24 GMT -5

RGEM and NAM both agree on a nasty line of storms moving through early Friday morning. Could be some supercells out in front of the line if NAM is correct. But given the overnight situation I don't see that happening.

SPC slowly coming on board and we should be in an enhanced risk atleast fairly soon.

downeastnc Moderator Posts: 1,368	May 5 Severe event May 3, 2017 16:47:19 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by downeastnc on May 3, 2017 16:47:19 GMT -5 Yeah the Nam is aggressive but timing........many times these modeled middle of the night severe lines just dont pan out or are sub severe.
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Fountainguy97
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May 5 Severe event May 3, 2017 17:01:30 GMT -5 via mobile

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Post by Fountainguy97 on May 3, 2017 17:01:30 GMT -5

May 3, 2017 16:47:19 GMT -5 downeastnc said:

Yeah the Nam is aggressive but timing........many times these modeled middle of the night severe lines just dont pan out or are sub severe.

Very true. The atmosphere Thursday afternoon will not be particularly unstable either. It's a giant bowling ball ULL though. I don't have much experience with that type of setup producing a severe squall line

downeastnc
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May 5 Severe event May 3, 2017 18:42:14 GMT -5

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Post by downeastnc on May 3, 2017 18:42:14 GMT -5

Latest 3km Nam is scary bad tomorrow night, if it holds SPC will upgrade for sure. Lots of semi discrete supes in front of the main squall with a pretty decent amount of turn would spell trouble, could get a few bigger stronger mid to long track rotations that way and all between 1-5 am to boot....ugh.

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downeastnc Moderator Posts: 1,368	May 5 Severe event May 3, 2017 20:36:47 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by downeastnc on May 3, 2017 20:36:47 GMT -5 Nam 3k sounding for PGV from the panel with the line just to our west.....notice the PDS TOR tag....this is a scary sounding anytime of the day but not what we want to see in the late overnight hrs.....
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snowlover91
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May 5 Severe event May 3, 2017 20:55:52 GMT -5 via mobile

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Post by snowlover91 on May 3, 2017 20:55:52 GMT -5

May 3, 2017 20:36:47 GMT -5 downeastnc said:

Nam 3k sounding for PGV from the panel with the line just to our west.....notice the PDS TOR tag....this is a scary sounding anytime of the day but not what we want to see in the late overnight hrs.....

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That's a scary sounding Ron. I think the SPC is going to wait until we get in range of the HRRR before pulling the trigger for our area.. but the warm front will be key. If it's delayed or we have a weak wedge in place than it will be a repeat of the bust from a few weeks ago.

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May 5 Severe event May 3, 2017 21:25:53 GMT -5

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Post by snowlover91 on May 3, 2017 21:25:53 GMT -5

Big differences in the 3km NAM and the HRRR with regards to the Gulf convection, dewpoints, and warm front. The HRRR is much slower with the warm front and the Gulf convection seems to be cutting off moisture transport. The NAM is much quicker with the warm front. My money is on the HRRR being right.

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downeastnc Moderator Posts: 1,368	May 5 Severe event May 3, 2017 22:12:15 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by downeastnc on May 3, 2017 22:12:15 GMT -5 nah the Nam3k been whooping the HRRR lately....its been pretty darn good inside of 48 hrs. I suspect the truth lies more in the middle somewhere....
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snowlover91
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May 5 Severe event May 4, 2017 8:23:01 GMT -5

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Post by snowlover91 on May 4, 2017 8:23:01 GMT -5

May 3, 2017 22:12:15 GMT -5 downeastnc said:

nah the Nam3k been whooping the HRRR lately....its been pretty darn good inside of 48 hrs. I suspect the truth lies more in the middle somewhere....

I don't know... the HRRR has done much better from what I've followed for our area. It seems to pick up on the important mesoscale influences better too like Gulf convection, CAD and stable air, etc. I do think we see some nasty storms overnight into the early morning and a few tornadoes but nothing like the big squall line initially depicted on the NAM a few days ago.

Flooding may also be a concern. A few high res models are picking up on 3-4" amounts across a good chunk of Eastern NC. If that happens over a large area and it falls quickly then the elevated tar river will have issues.

shaggy Moderator Posts: 1,076	May 5 Severe event May 4, 2017 13:41:03 GMT -5 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by shaggy on May 4, 2017 13:41:03 GMT -5 3k ham still bringing in some decent storms later tonight

downeastnc
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May 5 Severe event May 4, 2017 16:22:14 GMT -5

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Post by downeastnc on May 4, 2017 16:22:14 GMT -5

Soundings on both the HRRR and NAM indicate tornado threat, and decent line crossing NC so surprised they dont have this at least at a slight risk, timing must be taken into consideration though and again skinny cape high shear setups are so conditional that failure to hit that worst storm mode option seems more likely than a bunch of strong tornadic storms in the middle of the night.

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Bozart
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May 5 Severe event May 5, 2017 9:08:20 GMT -5 Tim likes this

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Post by Bozart on May 5, 2017 9:08:20 GMT -5

Another dumb no-show of an over-hyped non-event. Yeah, I've seen the LSRs: "tree down," "tree down," "tree down." Big deal. I finally had to turn my weather radio off this morning so I could get maybe at least a FEW hours of uninterrupted sleep, because as we all know, these days, the Weather Service blares those things at the drop of a hat, every time a cumulus cloud forms. I'd rather my roof just surprised me and detached and flew away than force advance billing on me every 30 minutes for hours on end with jarring, sleep-depriving alarms. So dumb.

Oh, and I was supposed to get more than an inch of rain overnight -- but what I'm showing is .32" in my bucket.

snowlover91
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May 5 Severe event May 5, 2017 21:13:59 GMT -5 via mobile

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Post by snowlover91 on May 5, 2017 21:13:59 GMT -5

May 5, 2017 9:08:20 GMT -5 Bozart said:

Another dumb no-show of an over-hyped non-event. Yeah, I've seen the LSRs: "tree down," "tree down," "tree down." Big deal. I finally had to turn my weather radio off this morning so I could get maybe at least a FEW hours of uninterrupted sleep, because as we all know, these days, the Weather Service blares those things at the drop of a hat, every time a cumulus cloud forms. I'd rather my roof just surprised me and detached and flew away than force advance billing on me every 30 minutes for hours on end with jarring, sleep-depriving alarms. So dumb.

Oh, and I was supposed to get more than an inch of rain overnight -- but what I'm showing is .32" in my bucket.

I wouldn't say it was over hyped. It initially looked rough but as we got closer the SPC went with a marginal risk which verified pretty nicely. There was a lot of rotation on radar in Eastern NC but I haven't heard of any tornadoes were confirmed or not.

Deleted Deleted Member Posts: 0	May 5 Severe event May 15, 2017 8:47:39 GMT -5 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Deleted on May 15, 2017 8:47:39 GMT -5 Thanks for the advice. return man 3
	Last Edit: Sept 9, 2017 22:35:40 GMT -5 by Deleted

Post by Fountainguy97 on May 3, 2017 15:46:24 GMT -5

Post by downeastnc on May 3, 2017 16:47:19 GMT -5

Post by Fountainguy97 on May 3, 2017 17:01:30 GMT -5

Post by downeastnc on May 3, 2017 18:42:14 GMT -5

Post by downeastnc on May 3, 2017 20:36:47 GMT -5

Post by snowlover91 on May 3, 2017 20:55:52 GMT -5

Post by snowlover91 on May 3, 2017 21:25:53 GMT -5

Post by downeastnc on May 3, 2017 22:12:15 GMT -5

Post by snowlover91 on May 4, 2017 8:23:01 GMT -5

Post by shaggy on May 4, 2017 13:41:03 GMT -5

Post by downeastnc on May 4, 2017 16:22:14 GMT -5

Post by Bozart on May 5, 2017 9:08:20 GMT -5

Post by snowlover91 on May 5, 2017 21:13:59 GMT -5

Post by Deleted on May 15, 2017 8:47:39 GMT -5