TS Julia homegrown special

Julia seems to not wanna go away, NHC now says the strong north shear is going to shut off and Julia will be have a small window before southerly shear of 10-15 knts kick in....several things to watch is if she does fire off especially over night tonight the storm could organize rather quickly, she has somehow maintained a rather small but strong LLC, second the weaker southerly shear might not be enough to shut her back down since she will be moving north at this point around 5-6 mph effectively lowering the shear to around 10 knts....so while not great conditions when you factor in deep warm waters in the low to mid 80's its not out of the question for Julia to do something silly and end up a decent TS coming ashore over eastern NC Tuesday. This all assumes she survives the next 6-12 hrs although I dont see why she wont at this point she should have spun down days ago.....it will not surprise me at all to see TS warning up from say Myrtle Beach to Hatteras sometime tomorrow if she does get it together even a little tonight.

Well lets see if Julia can surprise us.....I think the track is to slow she will hit late tomorrow night Tues morning I bet, the 15 knts of southerly shear isnt that horrible and if she can get something going I dont think it will hurt it as much as NHC thinks at the least she will maintain whatever gains she makes if she makes any gains at all. 

From NHC

Julia has a narrow window of opportunity to strengthen tonight and
Monday morning when the vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken
significantly and the upper-level flow is expected to become more
anticyclonic. These more conducive dynamics are forecast to coincide
with the nighttime convective maximum period and also during the
time when Julia will be over the Gulf Stream where SSTs are 29-30C.
Buoy reports offshore the South Carolina coast indicate that surface
dew points have increased to near 80F, a further indication that the
atmosphere surrounding Julia is becoming more conducive for
regeneration of convection near the center later tonight. By Monday
afternoon and evening, increasing southwesterly shear ahead of the
aforementioned shortwave trough should induce steady weakening,
which is expected to continue as the cyclone approaches the coast
of North Carolina.

Not enough to matter

Nothing firing just yet and if it doesn't flare up and sustain that tonight then its gonna be toast by tomorrow.

WPC thinks most of eastern NC is in for 3 inches-plus over the next three days. Take a look-see at the latest Day1-3 QPF graphic.

Quite the sleeper, Julia -- maybe.

LOL, Julia dies but the LLC should still be enough to fires storms and rain for eastern NC the next few days along with the south flow in place....