Post by Fountainguy97 on May 25, 2016 10:56:02 GMT -5
Models continue to show some form of a tropical system impacting Eastern NC early next week. Some models like the CMC have been VERY consistent in showing a fairly organized storm dropping 4-6 inches across Eastern NC while other like the GFS show the storm as more of an open wave but still bringing days upon days of tropical showers.
Given the shear and the lack of directional winds I would have to say a scenario like the GFS shows is more likely. The wave is currently very disorganized. IF the GFS is right though next week we will see tropical showers basically every day which could cause flooding issues regardless of a tropical landfall.
Last Edit: May 29, 2016 7:14:26 GMT -5 by snowlover91
Post by snowlover91 on May 25, 2016 15:38:07 GMT -5
Alright changed the title to reflect Investigation 91L, looks like it will meander off the SE coast a few days and possibly develop into a weak TS. Shear is decreasing off the coast and waters are warm enough to help this system organize over the weekend. The two big questions are what track does it take and how much will it intensify? The Euro takes it to weak TS status as does the NAM/CMC while the GFS basically has no surface reflection at all. My money is with the Euro/CMC solution on a weak system.
Post by snowlover91 on May 25, 2016 20:48:34 GMT -5
HWRF running for the first time brings 91L ashore in SC as a 50kt TS, rather small and compact system it would seem too. By comparison the GFDL keeps it around the GA/SC coastline and stalls it there for a few days as a weak LP or TD.
Looks to make landfall in sc and just bring us a heavy onshore flow with some decent rain totals. Could be a slight tornado risk if any thunderstorms can develop but even then that's not to likely.
Post by snowlover91 on May 27, 2016 16:44:57 GMT -5
Officially have TD2 now with it expected to reach TS status. Regardless of intensity it will bring plenty of moist air inland from the Atlantic thus bringing chances for heavy rain in the afternoons. Additionally the track looks like a landfall somewhere between Wilmington and Myrtle Beach area. How far inland it goes after that, and whether or not it stalls out, will play in to final rain totals. Could be pretty bad if it meanders along the coast or just inland dropping 4-6" of rain like some models hint at.
Pretty sharp recurve now forecast so it may be a non-issue. Split between a faster out to sea Euro and a track to the west after the stall by the GFS and its ensembles.
Pretty sharp recurve now forecast so it may be a non-issue. Split between a faster out to sea Euro and a track to the west after the stall by the GFS and its ensembles.
I could easily see this setting up more as a system that stalls along or just off the coast and meanders for a few days. Hwrf is consistent with inland track then stalling the remnant circulation over NC somewhere for a day or two before an approaching trough kicks it out. GFS has had a similar solution while the CMC and euro are more consistent with an out to sea approach. Will be a good early test to see which models handle it the best.
Post by snowlover91 on May 28, 2016 9:08:33 GMT -5
Recon actually finding a weaker system this morning with pressure around 1012mb.. However with TD 2 entering the Gulf Stream area I could easily see her strengthen and make a run at weak TS strength. Regardless of what happens the NHC and most models indicate the remnants will track right along the coast or just inland for days. We will probably see frequent tropical showers and storms due to the juicy airmass across the area.
Post by snowlover91 on May 29, 2016 7:15:16 GMT -5
With the daytime heating I expect a few strong storms will form in the right front quadrant of this system, could be a weak tornado or two spin up later today.