Way Too Early for This 2018-19

SO the above post is what we used to find out some similar years.

I meticulously pulled EVERY September from every year since 1950 and cataloged them via ENSO patterns.

I then picked through them using the low solar aspect of this winter.

Then weeded further down to just neutral and nino years since that's what this will be.

Then I did some of my own decision making and deleted years that were not similar for heights in Sept.


That left us with 4 years:

1965-66
1972-73
1986-87
2009-10


These will not be very common analogs as most people just look at low solar or enso. We took EVERYTHING into account. ALL of these years are in low solar and 3 in the absolute lowest of their time. ALL of these are Nino. ALL of these follow at least one year of nina. ALL of these are similar patterns in September into October.

These are the closest years you will find for the current patterns. All of them.


So lets take a peek shall we??


Composites:

Winter Temps.



Winter Precip.





So the combo of these years lines up perfectly with the early thoughts. Low solar+ nino= typical nino but higher chance of cold.


This is the general idea month by month: per analogs

December: Normal temps (+1 to -2) normal precip
January: COLD (0 to -6) above normal precip
February: normal/slightly below (0 to -2) normal precip


Here is insanity hehe.









So far all of my thoughts and Tyler's point toward a colder winter.

KEY POINTS:

El Nino: we can bank on it due to subsurface and increased westerlies next few weeks
Low solar: we can prove its helping blocking. look back at the Heights sitting over the pole right now.


This is about as good a look as you can get in this timeframe.

We have el nino which favors a good storm track. ON TOP of low solar which makes cold THAT much easier to find.


We are still looking into this but Siberia has been warm recently. IF our cold can set up on our side of the global (hasn't happened in a LONG time) we could be very happy come January.




Happy fall!