One thing is for sure though and that's the system in the gulf now will bring a lot of rain as it slides up into the SE and parks for a few days. If it sets up just right someone along the mountains could get drenched.
Post by snowlover91 on May 16, 2018 17:45:19 GMT -5
GFS might have the right idea of TC formation in that area but it’s too soon and strong. Probably end of May to early June IF something does form down there. These early season monsoonal gyre’s are not handled well by the GFS and the feedback issues it has causes it to significantly overamplify tropical systems. The FV3 GFS seems to be about as bad if not worse with this bias unfortunately. Euro is much better for TC genesis.
So the GFS is the only model getting this thing east of florida but then hooks it hard left. The rest are GOM storms so not too much to worry about unless you're in the mountains and have to worry about remnants flooding you out after all their heavy rain.
Models are flirting with some disturbances in the very long range. Pretty sad when that's the best we have had to deal with all year is super long range fantasy waves.
Goes to show it only takes one land falling storm to make a season. Nothing in the pipeline either so back to quiet tropics for now. The GFS shows a cane in Caribbean sneaking off to the NE near Hispaniola in 384 hours. That's the only tropical action going on the models for now and it will surely be wrong.
A couple days ago I read speculation that Florence might regenerate and turn southward back down the east coast. Anybody got late word on that?
Models show some of her energy getting organized but all models either kill it or scoot it back OTS....
The GFS however has now had a hurricane off the SE coast with another unusually strong high moving off NE...the storm on the last couple of frames is moving west of WSW even
Post by downeastnc on Sept 24, 2018 9:40:40 GMT -5
She is trying to get going, LLC might be getting a bit better organized on the SE side, if the shear lets up a bit like modeled the next day or so then she might just get enough organization to be named a weak TS....all models bring her right over eastern NC so that will be interesting to see if it plays out shouldnt be much of anything but I am sure they dont want 2-4" of rain anywhere in SE NC right now....
