Looks to be an active period with the potential for severe weather Saturday through monday. The 18z 3knam has a big mcs moving through the center part of the state but misses most of us to our southwest. We are borderline slight risk for the day 2 outlook and marginal for Sunday but I'd suspect an upgrade to slight risk for Saturday and Sunday time frames.
Looks to be an active period with the potential for severe weather Saturday through monday. The 18z 3knam has a big mcs moving through the center part of the state but misses most of us to our southwest. We are borderline slight risk for the day 2 outlook and marginal for Sunday but I'd suspect an upgrade to slight risk for Saturday and Sunday time frames.
Yep, new Day1 expands the Slight Risk eastward to the Inner Banks.
Looks to be an active period with the potential for severe weather Saturday through monday. The 18z 3knam has a big mcs moving through the center part of the state but misses most of us to our southwest. We are borderline slight risk for the day 2 outlook and marginal for Sunday but I'd suspect an upgrade to slight risk for Saturday and Sunday time frames.
Yep, new Day1 expands the Slight Risk eastward to the Inner Banks.
Crazy instability projected by the nam for monday. Per mhx
Monday-Monday night...Models generally agree on more widespread convective threat with stronger short wave trough and surface cold front moving toward area during peak afternoon heating. GFS and NAM indicating LIs to -10 and CAPEs to near 5000 with deep layer shear increasing to 40-50 KT, thus increasing concern for strong to severe storms and SPC day 3 Outook of Slight Risk of severe for entire area. Keeping POPs in 40-50% range for now. Guidance indicates low level thicknesses building to near 1430 meters, supportive of max temps 90-94 inland of coast. Lows Monday night remaining muggy 70-74.
Post by snowlover91 on May 27, 2017 15:38:29 GMT -5
This entire weekend looks really active with a slight risk the next 3 days. The HRRR shows some strong storms tonight and I wouldn't be surprised if Sunday and Monday are really active.
Btw, I responded to Lithia over on AMX. He loves to criticize others hard work without a shred of evidence to back his opinions up whatsoever. The tornado season here has been a bit more active than usual and this week may add more to that. Anyone have a link on how to look this up?
Post by downeastnc on May 27, 2017 17:53:03 GMT -5
Sunday looks like general severe threat, monday a bit more tornadic activity possible as the winds back better.....still the hi res models are kinda meh every other run........Lithia loves to argue and is a PITA.
Here Snow play with this site for tornado or any other severe type events
Sunday looks like general severe threat, monday a bit more tornadic activity possible as the winds back better.....still the hi res models are kinda meh every other run........Lithia loves to argue and is a PITA.
Here Snow play with this site for tornado or any other severe type eventsĀ
Thanks for the link! Yeah Sunday looks like more of a hail/wind threat and Monday could see a few supercells/tornadoes if the shortwave timing is right. The high res models seem to struggle more with storm initiation when we have these hot, high instability days from what I've noticed. The HRRR seems to do best since its grid is more effective at picking up on the parcels that form the storms... but it still struggles.
Yeah he is a pain, just like wildre and some of the others. Contrary to what they say though, I believe there is a good deal of correlation. I've seen a few forecasters I follow calling for a higher than normal chance for a NC landfall this year... and we've had a fairly active tornado season so far.
They are sticking with the slight risks the next 2 days despite Saturday's slight risk being lame with no storms.
Hi res models are ho hum as well, I guess they figure IF any of those complexes survive and get east into the SE coastal plains there will be plenty of fuel....the mts/piedmont had a nasty line segment last night that was notreally modeled at all on the hi res models so I guess we wait and see. Tomorrow looks better than today to me though.
Post by downeastnc on May 28, 2017 13:48:48 GMT -5
Cap trying to break down south of RDU, latest nam had a cluster firing west of the triangle that heads east, nothing to bad but still something, if the front can get in here tomorrow early enough it will be a rough day but the models have slowed it down and get it here to late to really tap into the powder keg.
90% cloud free here..cap still strong. I was so looking foward to storms this weekend while cooking out...big storm ripped through my wife's hometown memphis last night...major tree damage and I am pumped...ugg
Looks like most of them so far. What a joke. Anyone remember when we last had a good severe season? The 2 years he rob and Jeff chased we caught several good storms. Since then they have been few and far between.