Latest 3k nam really reduces the number of discrete cells and really only brings a squall line through. One cell moves up through central NC but that's it.
Latest 3k nam really reduces the number of discrete cells and really only brings a squall line through. One cell moves up through central NC but that's it.
It also has pulled WAY back on the supercell composite as well. Which in this scenario may be in our best interest. You don't play games with tornadoes.
I wouldn't put that much stock into the sim radars, or at least I wouldn't write anything off because of them. They change quite a bit every run, the soundings still say we got problems....
I wouldn't put that much stock into the sim radars, or at least I wouldn't write anything off because of them. They change quite a bit every run, the soundings still say we got problems....
Good point. For today the hrrr is continuing to bring the northern segment of the SC stroms north into Raleigh (my area) while nam insists on everyone but the extreme coast staying clear today. We need to focus on the hrrr for radar and then nam for parameters. And either way the hrrr will be changing a lot.
The nam did shift toward a broken line segment at 06z so if that trend conitues we may be better off on the tornado side
Last Edit: Apr 5, 2017 7:59:33 GMT -5 by Fountainguy97
Just read that 2 radars ( one in Florida and the other GA are down ) this radar data hole is causing issues with the hi res models which rely on the radar date, really couldnt have worse timing to lose two radars in the SE geez......so basically all future runs of the hi res models like HRRR/NAM3 are suspect....
Just read that 2 radars ( one in Florida and the other GA are down ) this radar data hole is causing issues with the hi res models which rely on the radar date, really couldnt have worse timing to lose two radars in the SE geez......so basically all future runs of the hi res models like HRRR/NAM3 are suspect....
I was just about to ask why the NAM and hRRR do not see the MASSIVE slag of precip in the south that is there.
WOnder how much dampening it will do to severe today. I know normally we cancel events for precip like that
Yeah all this convection has to be sucking the life out of the atmosphere. No way any major storms make it here besides some rain. which I will take lol
way to early to write this off, if anything the latest HRRR and Nam have more broken line of discrete storms, all it takes a couple of supercells, there is going to be strong rotation so ANYTHING that forms or moves into the area around 4-8am will quickly become tornadic. I suspect there will be 3-4 supercells with high tornadic potential over central and eastern NC tonight.
Guess we will wait and see, HRRR didnt have a lot of the stuff now going nuts in AL/W GA on the runs 5 hrs ago either....the setup screams tornado, its best to listen to it. Here is a shot from the NAM3K with a few supercells out in front of the main cold front, below that is the sounding for the same time frame, the sounding stays that way for the next frame as well so there is a 3/4 hr window as the front approaches where pretty much any thunderstorm in the area is going to want to go tornadic.
Hi res models don't agree on widespread storms. The hrrr is meager at best.
SPC had a special write up today, and on their meso page, to disregard the high res models due to a dry bias and initialization issues. The HRRR and 3km NAM are being affected by the radar outage as well and the HRRR has done poorly. Even so it has some very strong to severe storms Thursday morning in a favorable tornado environment...
People are way too quick to write these events off before they even get started. They did the same at American weather and now we have storms with baseball size hail and tornado warnings popping up all along the line.
A lot of people calling bust on AMWX but its to soon to do that IMO the LLJ is just starting to get into the game and we could quickly see all those supercells in AL/GA spin up.
As of 655 PM Wednesday...No changes to previous thinking with the potential for severe weather tonight into Thursday with all of Eastern NC except for the Outer Banks in an "Enhanced" severe threat tonight /the Outer Banks are in a "Slight" outlook. An amplifying upper trough with an embedded very potent mid level shortwave will be affecting our region for the next 15 hours or so. The shortwave will become negatively tilted while it crosses our area leading to a very strong kinematic environment characterized by deep/strong bulk shear and with large values low level helicity through mid Thursday morning. Instability should also be favorable as moisture advects northward in the low level southerly flow. These factors are very supportive of organized deep severe convection with damaging winds, large hail and isolated strong tornadoes. The initial area of convection appears to be associated with a northward lifting warm front with a weak low developing along it. This precipitation should be through much of the area by midnight.
There could be a brief lull in the precipitation around midnight, then some development of discrete cells seems possible ahead of the main cold front beginning around 3 AM. These cells could also be severe. The main cold front is forecast to have a strongly forced band of convection along it and will be over central NC at 8 AM and move rapidly across our region to be off the Outer Banks around 1 PM. These storms could also be severe.
RAH
Another threat of severe weather is expected early to mid Thursday morning areawide. All severe hazards will be possible.
As the mid level longwave trough swings eastward toward the S Appalachians with a negative tilt, inducing 200-250 m height falls and prompting an increase in 850 mb winds to around 50 kts with rebounding upper divergence as the upper jet over the SE strengthens, we should see a band of strong to severe convection cross the area, likely in a more linear form with the potential for bowing segments, embedded circulations, and perhaps a leading supercell or two, if we can achieve sufficient destabilization. Mid level lapse rates will remain steep, as noted on the special 18z sounding from Nashville TN, and despite the nighttime passage which usually results in lower low level lapse rates, these steep lapse rates aloft (and the resultant elevated CAPE) combined with vigorous dynamic forcing for ascent, long looping hodographs, rising surface dewpoints, and strong kinematics increases confidence in the risk of severe winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Timing of this later round of convection looks most likely to be between 2 am and 10 am, with adverse effects on the morning commute in the Triangle and Fayetteville areas to the east during the morning rush hour.
based on all the modeling this is going to be a meh event if it plays out like modeled.....it sure looks like its headed that way on radar etc....the storms and showers lingering along the coastline is stabilizing things to much to allow storms to fire.....looks like this is going to bust. Could be no storms at all even.....
Last Edit: Apr 6, 2017 2:00:44 GMT -5 by downeastnc