Post by downeastnc on Apr 4, 2017 9:48:21 GMT -5
Well this is looking legit and a bit scary, in fact it looks a lot like Mar 1984 with the main threat area being cental and eastern SC up into eastern NC......that plus a overnight time frame just spells disaster.
MHX overnight AFD
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 AM Tue...The big story through the long term period
continues to be the threat for a severe weather outbreak with
potential life-threatening severe thunderstorms Wednesday night
into Thursday. Cooler air will move in Friday through the
weekend with a warming trend expected early next week.
Wednesday through Thursday...Dangerous severe weather continues
to be a threat during this period. Large scale upper trough
amplification is expected over the Eastern US Wed/Thur in
response to upstream flow and phasing jet streams. This will
result in powerful cyclogenesis across the central Appalachian
region to the lower Great Lakes through Thursday. Some timing
differences remain with exact placement of synoptic features
during this period, though it appears that a potentially
widespread severe weather outbreak could affect the region. The
aforementioned trough attains a strong negative tilt as it
swings through the SE US and as a result deep rich moisture
gets advected into the region in tandem with very strong
dynamics to support severe thunderstorms. Tremendous height and
pressure falls occur early Thursday as the sfc low deepens to
around 985MB to the north. Latest guidance suite continues to
indicate 850H flow of 50-70 kt aided by 110+ kt 300MB jet, and
PW values 1.25-1.5". Even with the timing of the severe threat
relegated to Wednesday night and early Thursday, instability
parameters are quite high due to the sharp height falls yielding
steep mid level lapse rates, and sfc TD`s rising through the
60s overnight Wednesday. Hodographs are concerning in that
strong SRH values aoa 400 M2/S2 are fcst by the NAM/ECMWF with
low LCLs present. If all these ingredients come together the
threat for a few strong tornadoes and strong damaging winds
would be present.
MHX overnight AFD
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 AM Tue...The big story through the long term period
continues to be the threat for a severe weather outbreak with
potential life-threatening severe thunderstorms Wednesday night
into Thursday. Cooler air will move in Friday through the
weekend with a warming trend expected early next week.
Wednesday through Thursday...Dangerous severe weather continues
to be a threat during this period. Large scale upper trough
amplification is expected over the Eastern US Wed/Thur in
response to upstream flow and phasing jet streams. This will
result in powerful cyclogenesis across the central Appalachian
region to the lower Great Lakes through Thursday. Some timing
differences remain with exact placement of synoptic features
during this period, though it appears that a potentially
widespread severe weather outbreak could affect the region. The
aforementioned trough attains a strong negative tilt as it
swings through the SE US and as a result deep rich moisture
gets advected into the region in tandem with very strong
dynamics to support severe thunderstorms. Tremendous height and
pressure falls occur early Thursday as the sfc low deepens to
around 985MB to the north. Latest guidance suite continues to
indicate 850H flow of 50-70 kt aided by 110+ kt 300MB jet, and
PW values 1.25-1.5". Even with the timing of the severe threat
relegated to Wednesday night and early Thursday, instability
parameters are quite high due to the sharp height falls yielding
steep mid level lapse rates, and sfc TD`s rising through the
60s overnight Wednesday. Hodographs are concerning in that
strong SRH values aoa 400 M2/S2 are fcst by the NAM/ECMWF with
low LCLs present. If all these ingredients come together the
threat for a few strong tornadoes and strong damaging winds
would be present.
