2017 Severe weather thread

Big outbreak possible Wednesday...

SPC says this "Associated destabilization in
the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and
strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support
considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving
storm clusters and discrete supercell activity. Severe wind gusts
and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a
risk for large hail. It seems probable that areas of higher severe
probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time
frame."

Strong wording from MHX on this one.

Some timing
differences remain with exact placement of synoptic features
during this time frame, though it appears that a potentially
widespread severe weather outbreak could affect the region. The
aforementioned trough attains a strong negative tilt as it
swings through the Southeast US and as a result deep rich
moisture gets advected into the region in tandem with very
strong dynamics to support severe thunderstorms. Tremendous
height and pressure falls occur early Thursday as the sfc low
deepens to around 980MB to the north. 03/00Z GFS/CMC/ECM global
suite continue to indicate 850H flow of 50-70 kt aided by 110+
kt 300MB jet, and PW values AOA 1.5". Even if timing of the
severe threat is relegated to Wednesday night and early
Thursday, instability parameters are quite high due to the sharp
height falls yielding steep mid level lapse rates, and sfc TD`s
rising through the 60s overnight Wednesday. Hodographs are
quite troubling in that strong SRH values aoa 400 M2/S2 are fcst
by the NAM/ECMWF with low LCLs present. If all these
ingredients come together the threat for a few strong tornadoes
and strong damaging winds would be present.

Yeah havent seen MHX that spooked in a while....some strong wording also latest modeling looks like into the day Thur best timing right now so if its 6-8 hrs later than earlier that puts it at peak heating.....Cliff what you up to on Thur

Hi res models have a nice cluster of storms dropping SE across our area this afternoon, borderline severe maybe nothing to get to worked up over but hopefully some nice storms.

We will see. Today will be another case of the storms rly getting going and then they lose the sun. Then bye bye storms. Happened yesterday... and the event before... and the event before... and the... well u get the picture. La Niña rly kicking in nicely to crush severe here.

Well okay peeps, slight risk on the Day1. Been a while since we had that.