There's a threat of a few rounds of severe weather starting tomorrow mid day. The instability isn't great but the wind profiles are pretty crazy. The big threat comes in the overnight Sunday into daybreak Monday which is terrible timing. Heres some wording from Newport
The models are coming into good agreement that after a possible lull Sunday morning, an area of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through late Sunday morning into the first part of the afternoon. Instability is just beginning to creep up as this point and some of the higher resolution guidance is suggesting short lived, linear convective lines may race through our area. Cape values approach 500 j/kg, with 0-1 km shear values of 25+ kts and 0-6 km shear values of 50+ knots. This time period may not be as active as later Sunday evening but with a warm front moving through the area, low level shear may be locally enhanced with this boundary nearby.
Model cape values decrease Sunday night from their peak at 21Z Sunday, but impressive dynamics ahead and along the front along with warmer air surging in off the ocean may offset the "lower" instability. 0-1 KM Shear values increase to 40 kts while 0-6 bulk shear increases to 70+ kts! With these impressive wind fields both damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats Sunday and Sunday night.
Post by snowlover91 on Jan 21, 2017 9:12:01 GMT -5
SPC has some pretty strong wording and has part of NC in an enhanced area now and most of the state in slight risk. A 30% hatched threat has already been issued for a good portion of the state and they're talking a linear MCS with discrete supercells ahead of it with tornado potential.
SPC has some pretty strong wording and has part of NC in an enhanced area now and most of the state in slight risk. A 30% hatched threat has already been issued for a good portion of the state and they're talking a linear MCS with discrete supercells ahead of it with tornado potential.
I don't usually get to stoked for winter time threats when the forecast of large batches of rain to move through prior to the event. However our wind profiles are pretty sick and could really lead to some serious storms
So is this at all similar to superstorm 93 minus the cold air?
What kind of wind are we looking at possibly? Is t storms the only way we see wind? Or will this be a widespread 50mph wind event no matter what?
Superstorm we had 60 mph gust for several hours with no rain.
No....this low wont be anywhere close to the Mar 93 storm.....maybe some 25-30 mph gust outside of thunderstorms buts that about it.....we will have 40+ knts of shear under a few thousand feet...and 70+ knts above 1 km which is a sick profile add 500-1000 cape to produce updrafts and bango.....ANY updraft at all will try to rotate with that cape and lapse rates being off the charts with the deep cold air above us there could be a very good transport of that 70+ to the surface....so with the actual squall line we could get widespread 50+ mph winds in places.....any areas along the squall line that can get semi discrete will rotate hard and if any discrete cells fire they almost certainly will rotate.
70 knots above 1km??? I don't understand that. Do you literally mean at 1km? Cuz seems like that would bring sustained winds of 75mph to everyone over 3200 or so feet and up! Lol
70 knots above 1km??? I don't understand that. Do you literally mean at 1km? Cuz seems like that would bring sustained winds of 75mph to everyone over 3200 or so feet and up! Lol
Should I go to boone? Or beeche mtn? Lol
Yes its literally that winds are that fast at that level.....but it has more to do with rotation, BUT it also means that the LLJ is strong enough to be able to produce thunderstorm gust over hurricane strength when a downdraft transports that to the surface.
One more question. You might not have the answer though. I wonder if this will be similar in anyway to Jan 95...most impressive squall line I have ever seen.
One more question. You might not have the answer though. I wonder if this will be similar in anyway to Jan 95...most impressive squall line I have ever seen.
seriously doubt it Jan 95 is the upper limit to what we can get here....the LLJ in that event had to be 120 knts plus this isnt even close.
Post by snowlover91 on Jan 22, 2017 8:13:53 GMT -5
SPC went with high risk for GA today with a 30% hatched tornado threat. They talked about supercells and long track tornadoes. Also said they could easily make it as far north as NC which is why parts of the area are in an enhanced risk.
SPC went with high risk for GA today with a 30% hatched tornado threat. They talked about supercells and long track tornadoes. Also said they could easily make it as far north as NC which is why parts of the area are in an enhanced risk.
Bet we don't see the severe threat this far north. We need that warm front north of us to get the southerly flow and they don't have our winds shifting until much later this evening. South of highway 70 could see a lot more severe chances but I'm growing more and more skeptical of surface based thunderstorms capable of tornadoes this far north. Much more likely we see a squall line race through this evening.
Also have to consider moisture transport with that huge complex over Georgia.