Honestly at a loss as to why the NHC is declaring this a TD given the vis loop and other info doesnt really support it IMO.....wait 12 more hrs and then do it if the recon finds something worthy...the "center" is right off the north central Yucatan coast or at least thats the NHC position...again I dont see anything worthy of a TD call at this point.....
Post by snowlover91 on Jun 5, 2016 15:05:43 GMT -5
Recon not finding a LLC yet just an MLC. Probably too early to classify it but they'll keep it for now since it will likely make a run at TS status and become Colin. Pretty incredible we might have our 3rd named storm of the season by early June.
Post by snowlover91 on Jun 5, 2016 17:18:24 GMT -5
Just upgraded to a TS despite having a weak LLC, if even one present. I guess since its forecast to intensify fairly quickly the NHC wanted to upgrade it to get warnings out. GFS bring it to the panhandle of FL as a strong TS and possibly a hurricane as it brushes the OBX.
Looks terrible, shear and no real center to speak of......should stay offshore the SE coast but even 50-100 miles further west and we end up with a lot of rain we really dont need.
Post by snowlover91 on Jun 5, 2016 21:57:32 GMT -5
Yeah it won't be much of a wind producer but rain could be bad especially for coastal areas. Most models are indicating a general 2-4" near the coast, the NAM depicts the sharp cutoff line quite well.
Still looks like trash, not even sure this thing is a true tropical cyclone as there appears to not be a true center anywhere....waiting for the 11am update, I doubt they downgrade it but I am at work and cant see the recon data but sat doesn't show much in the way of a center where the NHC has the center......
edit: just declassify it and get it over with NHC
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016
The satellite presentation of Colin does not resemble that of a classical tropical cyclone, with the thunderstorm activity and strong winds well to the east of the center. Satellite, buoy, and the earlier aircraft data indicate that the center, such as it is, is within a large area of light and variable winds. In fact, several small swirls are seen rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre. The initial wind speed is maintained at 45 kt, based on the overnight aircraft observations. The next reconnaissance aircraft will be in the system around 18z.
Last Edit: Jun 6, 2016 10:21:53 GMT -5 by downeastnc
So the heavy precip forecast has kept getting shoved ever-farther east with each eastward track update. I see WPC now has my house down to about .75", andthe matrix forecasts for PGV and RWI are pretty much in line with that thinking. I suspect they're getting closer to the accurate number all the time.
So the heavy precip forecast has kept getting shoved ever-farther east with each eastward track update. I see WPC now has my house down to about .75", andthe matrix forecasts for PGV and RWI are pretty much in line with that thinking. I suspect they're getting closer to the accurate number all the time.
I dunno though the Euro and GFS both came back NW some and bring the center closer to the coast and bump the QPF accordingly....I suspect the WPC will amend their maps as well if this trend holds serve next run...
edit: nevermind the 18Z GFS is back OTS
edit 2: the 12km NAM however did really up the totals for us and its done rather well with this system so far.....
Last Edit: Jun 6, 2016 16:59:58 GMT -5 by downeastnc
MHX added Pitt Co to the flood watch the 18Z 12K NAM really has a good handle on this system so far and its a brutal run for coastal NC....2-4" for most of Pitt Co
Last Edit: Jun 6, 2016 20:21:40 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Post by snowlover91 on Jun 6, 2016 21:23:06 GMT -5
Yeah no idea why the NHC kept this one named for so long. It was obvious the "center" was broad and at the mid levels rather than the surface. Considering the only real threat was flooding due to heavy rains they could have easily downgraded it and just had local agencies issue flood watches if necessary.
The models seem to be struggling with how far inland the heavy rain will make it. The boundary seems to be right around Pitt county on most models. A solid 2-4" on the coast and maybe as far west as Kinston to Greenville.