Joe Bastardi @bigjoebastardi · 23m Our forecast yesterday morning called for this going to at least a cat 2, NHC now saying that also. Cat 3 certainly possible if it stays on the track we have
Joe Bastardi @bigjoebastardi · 23m Our forecast yesterday morning called for this going to at least a cat 2, NHC now saying that also. Cat 3 certainly possible if it stays on the track we have
Yeah the threat has increased but intensity forecast is gonna be a problem.
GFS takes it over fla now so nothing but slop here.
Model mayhem started at 6z runs. Really good convective burst is ongoing and may help ride up the coast. Most stronger ensemble members stayed offshore until NC and weaker ones hit Florida. 12z gfs weakens this to 1000mb+ at the same time the nhc has it at 90mph cane.
Joe Bastardi @bigjoebastardi · 1h Weatherbell.com track remains just east of FLA. Interesting reasons for why this could intensify will be discussed on The Raging Weatherbull on Weatherbell.com premium
Post by snowlover91 on Aug 1, 2020 21:44:28 GMT -5
Isaias is struggling with shear right now and that’s what is holding it in check. It seems to be mixing the dry air out but the shear is keeping the MLC and LLC from stacking. Wonder if a new LLC will form under the MLC.