Post by downeastnc on Feb 19, 2020 12:28:46 GMT -5
Lots of hand wringing going on as people hug every run, I am very Zen about it at this point, its going to be what it is going to be and time will tell....personally I think the models mix to much and keep the surface to warm to long, there is not a big warm nose aloft to overcome, the warm is at the surface and decent rates will get the snow to the surface quickly IMO and once it goes snow it stays snow. I think worst case for PGV area is 3-5" of snow and .5-1" of sleet.....best case is probably around 12-14" of snow....once the SL forms and moves off a bit there will be a period of mod to heavy snow that could last 4-5 hrs that's when it will really pile up.
My stubborn old Bozart Rule is whispering in my ear: "Don't count on those optimistic QPFs!" And if the moisture comes in a smidgeon light, as it is wont to do, then there go our rates. I think it's gonna wind up being about 2" at PGV and 3" at my house. Lots of sitting at the window watching it rain while we wait for the changeover. Heaven knows I've spent a few of those nights.
Post by snowlover91 on Feb 19, 2020 14:38:08 GMT -5
18z suite is about to start, maybe we can get a colder trend on the NAM to start. Any further north and we will be in serious trouble along the 264 corridor.
18z suite is about to start, maybe we can get a colder trend on the NAM to start. Any further north and we will be in serious trouble along the 264 corridor.
Even with the warmer runs we still get hammered......to much worrying about mixing, once the low takes over offshore we go all snow and it will be heavy snow....even with all that mixing the latest NAM was 10-15" over the area.....take half of that and its still a 5-8" event.....
There it is folks. We wait all day for a changeover that will likely be delayed and we lose too much qpf. This is gonna be a minor non-event.
As of 250 PM Wednesday...The calm before the storm on Thursday. Low pressure develops off the northeast Florida coast and moves offshore well to our SE while strengthening Thursday. NAM3km/HRRR shows light rain returning to the CWA by mid-morning Thursday with steady light rain continuing through the daylight hours. Top- down ensemble precipitation type tool indicates that ptype should remain liquid through 00z and surface temperatures remain at 36 degrees or higher over the northwestern corner of the CWA and closer to 40 degrees elsewhere. Highs will likely occur around midday with slowly falling afternoon temperatures. N/NE winds will remain gusty on Thursday.
I know it's supposed to snow but considering how warm it's been all winter I'm sitting here in near disbelief. Isn't it amazing how these things pop up out of the blue? Who'd have guessed!
Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H.L. Mencken
There it is folks. We wait all day for a changeover that will likely be delayed and we lose too much qpf. This is gonna be a minor non-event.
As of 250 PM Wednesday...The calm before the storm on Thursday. Low pressure develops off the northeast Florida coast and moves offshore well to our SE while strengthening Thursday. NAM3km/HRRR shows light rain returning to the CWA by mid-morning Thursday with steady light rain continuing through the daylight hours. Top- down ensemble precipitation type tool indicates that ptype should remain liquid through 00z and surface temperatures remain at 36 degrees or higher over the northwestern corner of the CWA and closer to 40 degrees elsewhere. Highs will likely occur around midday with slowly falling afternoon temperatures. N/NE winds will remain gusty on Thursday.
Starting mid day, early afternoon is never a good time for rain changing to snow storms to start in central and eastern nc, you spend half of or more of the qpf just trying to drive the temp down to get the change over.
There it is folks. We wait all day for a changeover that will likely be delayed and we lose too much qpf. This is gonna be a minor non-event.
As of 250 PM Wednesday...The calm before the storm on Thursday. Low pressure develops off the northeast Florida coast and moves offshore well to our SE while strengthening Thursday. NAM3km/HRRR shows light rain returning to the CWA by mid-morning Thursday with steady light rain continuing through the daylight hours. Top- down ensemble precipitation type tool indicates that ptype should remain liquid through 00z and surface temperatures remain at 36 degrees or higher over the northwestern corner of the CWA and closer to 40 degrees elsewhere. Highs will likely occur around midday with slowly falling afternoon temperatures. N/NE winds will remain gusty on Thursday.
The irony is the NAM3k they cite here gives us 7" of snow last run......
Lots of sitting at the window watching it rain while we wait for the changeover.
lol
Models have maximums all around us. Rgem right up 95 gfs is slightly east of us euro and ukie are right over us cmc was east of nam witht over us........we shall see