Post by snowlover91 on Feb 17, 2020 23:22:15 GMT -5
Btw if you want to post image links on this thread, all you need to do is copy/paste the link into your post and as long as it ends in .jpeg, .gif or .png it will automatically post the photo.
Post by snowlover91 on Feb 18, 2020 13:33:10 GMT -5
So the debate is which model suite is correct? NAM and GFS are the snowiest. CMC is a middle ground. Icon and euro/uk are disappointing with very little snow and precip and similar for RGEM.
IMO experience over the years has shown the Euro sometimes is too dry with these overrunning setups. NAM typically handles the 5H energy and dynamics better especially when a coastal transfer is involved like we have here. I think this will be a system where the Euro is way off and doesn’t catch on until 24-36 hours out.
So the debate is which model suite is correct? NAM and GFS are the snowiest. CMC is a middle ground. Icon and euro/uk are disappointing with very little snow and precip and similar for RGEM.
IMO experience over the years has shown the Euro sometimes is too dry with these overrunning setups. NAM typically handles the 5H energy and dynamics better especially when a coastal transfer is involved like we have here. I think this will be a system where the Euro is way off and doesn’t catch on until 24-36 hours out.
Well if so, it better get to getting. We’re about 36 hours out from the start of things in the western part of NC.
So the debate is which model suite is correct? NAM and GFS are the snowiest. CMC is a middle ground. Icon and euro/uk are disappointing with very little snow and precip and similar for RGEM.
IMO experience over the years has shown the Euro sometimes is too dry with these overrunning setups. NAM typically handles the 5H energy and dynamics better especially when a coastal transfer is involved like we have here. I think this will be a system where the Euro is way off and doesn’t catch on until 24-36 hours out.
Euro has done miserable lately.....would much rather have the NAM/GFS on my side at this point.....I think we see the EURO/UK etc come around tomorrow or even 00Z tonight......PGV 3-6" no sweat.....
Post by snowlover91 on Feb 18, 2020 17:12:42 GMT -5
18z suite is very good. Nam held serve, GFS bumped up the amounts in a large portion of NC and ICON was improved as well. Saw this too as to why we should lean more towards the NAM/GFS vs the Euro.
“In these type of fast flows I tend to favor gridded models(NAM & GFS) over spectral(Euro) simply because they are better suited to handle the multiple back to back pieces of energy. A spectral model like the Euro divides the atmosphere up into 28 waves across the globe. Having two waves back to back like we are seeing is certainly giving the Euro trouble. It struggled with the last event where there was trailing overrunning precip. It has shown to me a tendency to struggle in these fast flows. The nam with those smaller grid points is better suited to resolve those little details, especially when several vorts are heading our way.”