Post by snowlover91 on Feb 17, 2020 18:50:26 GMT -5
Thread specifically dedicated to the threat models are showing for Thursday and Friday. With increasing ensemble support, euro, gfs and icon all showing coastal lows and NAM on board too the odds are looking good for a decent snow!
It is not often that ENC is in a prime spot, but when it is it can produce big snows. It is looking good right now, hopefully it continues in our favor for NC.
Post by downeastnc on Feb 17, 2020 20:58:02 GMT -5
This is about as good a look in the 3 day range as we are going to see around here for accumulating snow.....interior eastern NC could get smoked with 5-10" if everything comes together right.....heck it will snow slam to the coast with this one. If the 18Z NAM had the thermal profile right the 925-850 temps will be crashed well off the coast and any warm surface layer would last about 2 seconds once rates pick up....
I’d give my right acorn to have another March 1980 out of this.
I'd take a December 2010 out of this, 12-13" of snow in the Wilson area. I was in Rocky Mount for Christmas with my grandfather, who passed a few years ago. I remember waking up to 6+ inches of snow on the ground and at times throughout the day hearing some sleet mixing in and pinging on the tin roof. Ah good times those were.
00z NAM is rolling in right now. A little more separation in the energy so not sure if that is what we want to see or not.
Post by snowlover91 on Feb 17, 2020 21:49:20 GMT -5
Here's 700mb vertical velocity, one of my favorite plots to use as it shows the overall lift in the snow growth region. This is some STRONG lift over a large area of Eastern NC, this is exactly what you want to see less than 84 hours out.
Post by snowlover91 on Feb 17, 2020 22:14:36 GMT -5
12km NAM, need to watch the 850mb vort maps for where a weak 850 low might track. Right now it's indicating Columbia to Wilmington track, typically the heaviest snow and banding is roughly 100-150 miles north of the 850mb low. Right now that would favor areas just south of Greenville to Wilson to Raleigh.
The models will wiggle around a bit with bullseye's but the 264 corridor is sitting pretty I think......
Yeah 12z tomorrow is going to be interesting. We will be getting into 3km range and can see what it has to offer. It will be key for picking up on areas of heaviest banding and rates. 00z GFS looks solid tonight, ICON was good and NAM was good with very good agreement at 5h among the models. Just need to see the Euro and UK fully on board and I expect we will soon. GFS has had a very nice 4 run trend.
Last Edit: Feb 17, 2020 23:07:50 GMT -5 by snowlover91