Season will soon be starting. Going back to the old unscientific research we did a while back we are at what I would consider and "slightly" elevated risk of another landfall this year. We are sitting at 15 confirmed tornados so that's not the highest number but puts us in a slightly elevated risk area based on those loose nunbers.
Post by snowlover91 on Jul 24, 2019 20:04:08 GMT -5
With the ENSO state now basically in neutral territory it’s going to be interesting to see how things shake out for August and September. From what I’ve been reading, the active African monsoon season (more than usual) and neutral state could really amp things up in August and September. SST’s are much warmer than last year across the Atlantic. The only possible hindrance is the general sinking motion across the Atlantic and dry air/dust.
Moving forward the models suggest a couple more threats. Very long range so who knows but the tropics are getting ready to get busy as we head into late September or october.
Yeah, I've been reading rumblings about a sprawling Bermuda high expected to develop and leave the gate open for us to see additional threats in the next couple weeks or so.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 10, 2019 6:03:55 GMT -5
The models have several potential threats, and after those even there will probably be a few more weeks of threats, till mid Oct seems likely....Oct is the new Sept anyways lately....
Post by downeastnc on Sept 11, 2019 20:55:13 GMT -5
95L is trending towards a legit threat to the US and maybe even NC, some models now have it as more than a weak system crossing FL, the ICON/Ukie take it north off the east coast of Florida and have it pushing cane status by Monday still moving NNW....the 18Z Euro also just moved towards that idea with a lot of members now up the east coast ( those have it as a cane )and the Euro mean track is shifting to a more NW track though it is just inland of Florida's east coast....this would be pretty close to what Dorian did and impact a lot of the same places at least FL/GA wise....