920? I'm seeing 956mb just offshore hatteras. Gotta remember these are really long range forecasts although there's consistency between the models it was the same way last year with Joaquin and it's heavily modeled southeast impact. As we all know he went out to sea.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 27, 2016 18:36:50 GMT -5
Someone on MWX said it best, the number of interactions over the next 10 days between the cutoff lows, troughs , the high pressure strength and movement, etc etc that have to happen perfectly to get the Sandy redux is ridiculous..... that goes for any of the solutions to be correct in this timeframe....
I'm surprised they didn't find any real llc out there today. Likely a result of its fast westward motion not allowing a westerly wind on the southern side.
920? I'm seeing 956mb just offshore hatteras. Gotta remember these are really long range forecasts although there's consistency between the models it was the same way last year with Joaquin and it's heavily modeled southeast impact. As we all know he went out to sea.
921 right off our coast and 920 a few frames prior to this. Probably a cat 3 verbatim due to large wind field.
At this point most of the system is already north of 12N with the best vorticity north of 13N. It should close off a LLC very soon and its clearly getting better organized by the frame.
Post by downeastnc on Sept 27, 2016 21:54:55 GMT -5
Those pressures are way overdone, rarely will you find a storm on that track deepening like that....southerly shear should be really messing with the storm as the trough approaches etc...that said if it can get a large well organized wind field and a strong inner core and it does come ashore around here it could rival Fran etc......we just need it to be moving quickly if it does hit to minimize rainfall totals and the period of highest winds....I think we got 5-6" out of Fran....maybe 7-8"out of Bertha.....the Euro timing is the scariest for us as it will most likely do to us what the GFS does to NYC.
Last Edit: Sept 27, 2016 21:55:31 GMT -5 by downeastnc
Those pressures are way overdone, rarely will you find a storm on that track deepening like that....southerly shear should be really messing with the storm as the trough approaches etc...that said if it can get a large well organized wind field and a strong inner core and it does come ashore around here it could rival Fran etc......we just need it to be moving quickly if it does hit to minimize rainfall totals and the period of highest winds....I think we got 5-6" out of Fran....maybe 7-8"out of Bertha.....the Euro timing is the scariest for us as it will most likely do to us what the GFS does to NYC.
Yeah the pressures are probably too low since I don't see the waters off our coast as being capable of supporting something that strong unless we have the perfect environment. However sometimes troughs can enhance the outflow of a storm and strengthen it rather than shear it. Charley is one good example, the trough picking it up caused quick intensification right up to landfall as the trough helped to ventilate it.
My biggest concern is with the large size of the system and HP to the north. IF this makes landfall in NC a large area would be impacted by tropical storm force and hurricane winds or gusts.